Natural Gas Technico-Economic Savings Potential Study in Quebec

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets that Énergir established in 2021 are ambitious. In fact, Énergir clients will need to generate, within 10 years, natural gas savings equivalent to those generated over a 20-year period, notably net annual energy savings of 57.5 Mm3 by 2030.

To identify cost-effective measures and their scope in terms of energy savings potential that Énergir could foster to achieve its natural gas savings targets, Énergir wishes to update its natural gas savings potential estimations in the residential, business, and institutional sectors of Quebec. The last study was conducted in 2017. Énergir also needed an Excel file (model) to be developed to enable it to estimate the existing potential for the 2023-2030 period.

Econoler was mandated with updating the savings potential estimations of Énergir. The following tasks were carried out under the mandate:

• Define the functionalities of the model, including a list of immediate and future needs as well as inputs and outputs;
• Collect information by analyzing documentation and conducting interviews with Énergir managers;
• Develop the model and draft instructions;
• Select the measures to be integrated into the model;
• Input the parameters of the model and calibrate it to estimate existing potential;
• Present results and submit the model along with a report to Énergir.

Ultimately, Énergir submitted the report produced to the Régie de l’énergie. Based on the results on existing potential, Énergir was able to assess the existing potential by 2030 for each sector.

The support of Econoler resulted in Énergir having a model allowing it to not only rapidly and easily update existing potential as needed, but also carry out sensitivity analyses on key performance indicator variables to estimate sectoral potential, for instance avoided costs, measure penetration rates, and amount of financial assistance. In addition, the model served to gather data from different Énergir departments and services to enable them to effectively support the achievement of the natural gas consumption reduction targets.