Project Experts
Jess Burgess Lead Expert
Alexandre Gareau Lead Analyst
Estimating Peak Demand Reductions for BC Hydro
Analysis to understand and value demand response
- Client
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Year
2023
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Region
- North America (USA-Canada)
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Service
- Program Evaluation
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Countries
Canada
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Provinces
British Columbia
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Sector
- Utilities
As electricity systems experience sharper and more frequent demand peaks, utilities are increasingly turning to the flexibility already embedded within their customers’ homes. Smart thermostats, electric water heaters and electric vehicle (EV) chargers offer demand flexibility by turning down, turning off or deferring electricity consumption to off-peak times. However, system planners and grid operators require more than potential, theoretical flexibility, they need reliable resources that are available when the grid needs power.
To help understand whether residential load flexibility could become a reliable system resource, BC Hydro asked Econoler to assess the performance of its Peak Saver pilot. The work helped estimate the demand reductions delivered through the pilot program and provided useful insights to inform the design and launch of a province-wide residential demand response program.
Purpose
Econoler assessed the performance and peak demand impacts of BC Hydro’s residential Peak Saver demand response program. The assessment spanned both winter peak events and a summer air-conditioning pilot to quantify peak load reductions, measure how each type of participating device performed across a range of peak demand event scenarios, and inform program implementation and planning.
The mandate
BC Hydro asked Econoler to assess the Peak Saver pilot, both to quantify the peak savings delivered by each device type and each response event and to assess the data and methods used to quantify the savings.
A growing province leaning on demand-side management
BC Hydro is British Columbia’s primary electric utility, serving residential, commercial and industrial customers across the diverse provincial climate zones. BC Hydro’s Peak Saver program is a key tool for reducing or deferring system peak demand. As BC’s electricity demand increases it is important for system planners to understand precisely how much demand flexibility home heating, water heating and EV charging can deliver for the electric system.
Informing integrated planning
Econoler quantified the peak demand reductions achieved per device type, per home, and at the system level for more than 20 demand response events during the 2022/2023 heating season and the 2023 cooling season. The analysis results provided BC Hydro with the following recommendations:
- Launch the Peak Saver program province-wide
- Refine which technologies to target for the greatest peak impact
- Update measurement approaches for managed EV charging
- Inform planning for summer demand response in future years
By supporting BC Hydro’s ability to plan and operate demand response resources more effectively, this work benefits British Columbia ratepayers by helping to defer costly infrastructure investments and maintaining a reliable electricity system during peak periods.
A rigorous baseline approach built on granular meter data
Econoler integrated three data sources to complete its analysis: Home-level advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data, BC Hydro’s distributed energy resources management system (DERMS), and device-level data from participating EV chargers.
Interval meter data for roughly 3,500 participating households were used to estimate baseline demand per home, from which actual demand during peak events was subtracted to isolate the reductions attributable to Peak Saver. The team assessed a range of day matching and regression baseline approaches and applied the methodology with the best statistical profile to estimate counterfactual demand during events. Where whole-home meter data proved insufficient to isolate managed EV charging, Econoler used device-level charger data to build dedicated baselines, to improve the accuracy and reliability of the load reduction analysis.
Results and key findings: Not all flexibility is created equal
The analysis led to the following conclusions regarding the performance of the different residential demand response technologies:
- Smart thermostats delivered the largest peak demand reductions at the system level
- Connected water heaters provided the greatest peak reductions per device, but a relatively small reduction at the system level because participation was limited
- EV chargers provided the lowest peak reductions during demand response events on a per device basis
- Home utility meter data was an unreliable source for measuring performance of EV chargers during demand response events because of challenges disaggregating whole home data by end-use. After first testing utility meter data, Econoler used device-level data from enrolled electric vehicle smart chargers to successfully estimate demand reductions.
- Taken together, these findings informed BC Hydro’s program planning, delivery and tracking.
From measurement to a scalable peak resource
Econoler’s work informed BC Hydro’s business decision to launch the Peak Saver winter demand response program province-wide in winter 2023-’24. The program included baseboard thermostats, hot water load controllers and EV chargers, as well as home battery storage and a behavioural demand response component. Since launching in 2023-’24, the program continues to grow steadily and now serves more than 200,000 participating homes.